NASA/JPL predicted a major global warming anomaly arriving this past year due to the Tonga eruption of Jan 2022.
They gave a forcing estimate of +0.15 Wm−2, equivalent to half a decade of global human CO2 forcing, arriving mainly at 18-24 months after Jan 2022 (ie the past year) and lasting for 5-10 years
"the HT-HH eruption was unusual in that it injected extremely large amounts of H2O [into the stratosphere]. Preliminary climate model simulations suggest an effective radiative forcing at the tropopause of +0.15 Wm−2 due to the stratospheric H2O enhancement. For comparison, the radiative forcing increase due to the CO2 growth from 1996 to 2005 was about +0.26 Wm−2.
"The excess H2O could arrive in northern and southern midlatitudes in ∼18 and ∼24 months, respectively, over a broad domain in the upper stratosphere... The timescale for complete dissipation of the plume may be 5–10 years
They gave a forcing estimate of +0.15 Wm−2, equivalent to half a decade of global human CO2 forcing, arriving mainly at 18-24 months after Jan 2022 (ie the past year) and lasting for 5-10 years
"the HT-HH eruption was unusual in that it injected extremely large amounts of H2O [into the stratosphere]. Preliminary climate model simulations suggest an effective radiative forcing at the tropopause of +0.15 Wm−2 due to the stratospheric H2O enhancement. For comparison, the radiative forcing increase due to the CO2 growth from 1996 to 2005 was about +0.26 Wm−2.
"The excess H2O could arrive in northern and southern midlatitudes in ∼18 and ∼24 months, respectively, over a broad domain in the upper stratosphere... The timescale for complete dissipation of the plume may be 5–10 years
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/202...