SGI was a pretty small 3D workstation company at the bottom of the S&P500, even at it's peak. Microsoft was at least a hundred times as big as SGI. (And Nvidia was even smaller, selling GPUs for both SGI worthstations and Windows PCs at the time.) Now Nvidia is a titan at #5 in the S&P. They could certainly be taken down a notch or two as CUDA alternatives mature and people start buying cheaper AMD/Intel/FPGA(groq, etc) hardware. But they're the best at what they do, with the best people. They don't really have a doomed business model the way SGI's "take out of a second mortage for the Onyx workstation to make N64 games" business model was doomed. I don't buy Nvidia stock, personally, but I especially wouldn't bet against them long term either.
I get the vague feeling they are more like Intel in the 80's. Nvidia has had a real talent partially by their own smart moves and partial just pure luck for stumbling from one win to another. Seeing them fall into the Crypto boom and then straight onto the AI boom has been wild to see.
