"Their stock price is flat only if you don't include the dividends they've paid out."
You have that backwards. If people think a company will pay out big dividends, then they bid up the price of the stock. That Microsoft's stock has remained mostly flat despite good dividend payments suggests that the stock would have plummeted without the dividend payments, and it will plummet if the dividend payments stop.
A flat stock price despite good dividends suggests weakness, not strength.
Buyers will only bid up if they expect the dividends to increase without compromising the ability of the company to pay further dividends, or if the dividend is paid out with an asset that is currently worthless the way it's being used. It's really no different than growth stocks -- they are bid up with the idea that the last owner of the stock will ride it out in dividends until the final sale of assets.
You have that backwards. If people think a company will pay out big dividends, then they bid up the price of the stock. That Microsoft's stock has remained mostly flat despite good dividend payments suggests that the stock would have plummeted without the dividend payments, and it will plummet if the dividend payments stop.
A flat stock price despite good dividends suggests weakness, not strength.