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> If you think there is a chance that everyone gets bored of AI and moves on to some other fad that is not in Nvidia’s wheelhouse, then it’s probably down from here.

You may wish to look at history to see how things can work out: Cisco had a P/E ratio of 148 in 1999:

* https://www.dividendgrowthinvestor.com/2022/09/cisco-systems...

The share price tanked, but that does not mean that people got bored of the Internet and the need for routers and switches. QCOM had a P/E of 166: did people decide that mobile communications was a fad?

The connection between technological revolutions and financial bubbles dates back to (at least) Canal Mania:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canal_Mania

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_Revolutions_and_...

It is possible for both AI to be a big thing and for NVDA to drop.





Neither of these were technologically based speculations.

> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

While widely used as an example, most of the well-known stories about this were actually made up, and it wasn't as bad as it is often made out to be.

Quinn and Turner, when they wrote about bubbles:

* https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/48989633-boom-and-bust

* https://old.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/i2wfsm/i_am_...

purposefully excluded it because their research found it wasn't actually a thing. (Though for the general public it can be an illustrative parable.)




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