This assumes that AI will continue to improve at the same pace. GPT3 released November 2022 and yes, there have been staggering improvements since then.
My intuition is that we’re beginning to reach the bounds of what we can do with LLMs. All we’ve been doing is applying the technology to other mediums (images, video, code) and yeah we’ve been seeing some really awesome/terrifying results. It all looks like it’s 80% of the way there, from which the first thought is that in a couple of years it’ll be 100% of the way there and we’ll all be jobless.
This reminds me of the full self driving hype. The demos were so exciting and all that was left was getting these last couple edge cases worked out and then we’d all be in self-driving taxi pods….
My intuition is that we’re beginning to reach the bounds of what we can do with LLMs. All we’ve been doing is applying the technology to other mediums (images, video, code) and yeah we’ve been seeing some really awesome/terrifying results. It all looks like it’s 80% of the way there, from which the first thought is that in a couple of years it’ll be 100% of the way there and we’ll all be jobless.
This reminds me of the full self driving hype. The demos were so exciting and all that was left was getting these last couple edge cases worked out and then we’d all be in self-driving taxi pods….