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Both traditional desktop and laptop markets have been declining or flat (respectively), and both are anticipated to decline in near future years, if not already. See e.g., <https://convergetechmedia.com/laptop-sales-vs-desktop-pc-sal...> for overall markets and <https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/29/business/dell-earnings-ai-ser...> concerning Dell's recent performance.

To the extent that Linux has always represented an advanced technical subset of the market, the desktop market is effectively shifting further to technical users. "Casuals" increasingly rely on mobile devices --- smartphones and tablets, possibly netbooks. Technical users who are already more likely to choose Linux (or similar alternatives such as the *BSDs) are increasingly concentrated in the desktop market.

I'll note that I'm not one to lump Android in with Linux, as the overwhelmingly prominent Android UX does not include Linux applications or environments, even if those are in theory available (e.g., through Termux).

Whether or not overall Linux usage is increasing, as in total interactive users and time-in-OS (that is, for those using multiple environments, including virtualised environments, what is the split of time between OSes), and the value associated with usage (especially in professional / commercial contexts) isn't clear from the Linuxiac article. I suspect that there's some absolute growth as computer markets grow modestly overall, but that it's less significant than the percentage of desktop top-line figures would suggest.

(Written as a Linux user for well over a quarter century, and an Android user for a decade and a half, along with numerous other platforms.)




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