Once you learn some of the weather terminology, your local NWS office’s AFD (area forecast discussion) is easily the most accurate, honest forecast you can find.
Unless you live in the Pacific Northwest, where they routinely screw up winter storms. Thankfully we have a couple of very competent meteorologists to keep us informed when it's needed most, otherwise the winter disaster scenarios would be much worse than it already is.
Then select 'Forecast Discussion' and read the discussions. They are usually updated a few times a day at the minimum, but during active weather events they are generally updated every 3 to 4 hours with new information (more data from the 850mb layer, for example).
