On: What a major solar storm could do

[rootusrootus]

> Statistically Cascadia is long overdue a 9

More precisely, it's 8, the average is 500 years, and the last one was in 1700.

[shkkmo → rootusrootus]

That's not precisely accurate. The cascadian subductions zone uas produced magnitude 9 quakes in the past.

The results I've seen (from a decade and a half ago) pegged the probability of a magnitude > 9 in the next 50 years at 1/10 and a magnitude > 8 at 1/3.

The 500 years average is if you look at the last 7 events. 7 is a horribly low sample size and if you extend the timescale, that average drops by half and indicates we are past the 250 year average.

[DrBazza → rootusrootus]

Cunningham's law eh? :)

[rootusrootus → DrBazza]

Ha! I had forgotten it had a name, but I guess that works.

There is a fair bit of variability in the 500 year average, and 8 is still a seriously large earthquake, so preparations are definitely justified IMO.