Iran is pretty darn hard to actually invade - unlike Iraq, Iran has tons of mountainous terrain and a huge army, and even the US hasn't tried it. So while it would be very unfortunate for Iran if they got into that war, the regime might survive. The US could probably do a lot more, but if they did then Iran could go metaphorically-nuclear and block the strait of Hormuz, destroying global oil supply and supply of LNG to asia, causing mass blackouts there. So the US would be quite leery about doing so.
Israel could nuke Iran, but then they'd be utterly fucked politically. Not just for breaking the nuclear taboo, but because Hezvollah et al would cream themselves and have basically infinite recruitment.
In contrast, Israel has recently had some of its citizens killed by the Iran-backed Hamas, and are bordering both Lebanon and Syria. This didn't hurt Iran from political backlash, not at all, Iran's been pretty open in their hating Israel. If for any reason the US withdrew its military backing for Israel, Iran could and would support an extended proxy war between Israel and its neighbors. Not Gaza (Israel controls their water and fuel supply, so if they're not concerned about pissing off the US and rest of the world then they can kill them all fairly easily) but Lebanon and Syria via Hezbollah and some 'renegotiation' over Golan heights.
What's more, Iran could just invade Israel outright, with Syria's support. Iran has 9x the population size and their army is reasonably modern. Without US backing, Egypt's current dictator could decide to provide military support of their own. And if they win that war then Israelis will be ethnically cleansed. Which is arguably a worse threat than what Israel could do to Iran.
There you go, it can be argued! I wouldn't normally argue for it, I'd say they're about equal personally. It's kind of weird to compare them; neither is really in a good position to fight the other in the first place.
Good post, I basically agree - hence the current policy Israel and America have cooked up of isolation and embargo.
Regarding ethnic cleansing, while you speculate, the Gazans suffer under it in reality.
I'd give Iran the implicit moral highground because they are pretty peaceful and haven't attempted to ethnically cleanse anyone, unlike Israel in both aspects.
Just on the basis of what has actually happened, Israel is an egregiously immoral state. Rich man, eye of a needle and all that.
Now, as for whether or not they would... I think they probably would. But that's speculation, not reality.
Challenge accepted.
Iran is pretty darn hard to actually invade - unlike Iraq, Iran has tons of mountainous terrain and a huge army, and even the US hasn't tried it. So while it would be very unfortunate for Iran if they got into that war, the regime might survive. The US could probably do a lot more, but if they did then Iran could go metaphorically-nuclear and block the strait of Hormuz, destroying global oil supply and supply of LNG to asia, causing mass blackouts there. So the US would be quite leery about doing so.
Israel could nuke Iran, but then they'd be utterly fucked politically. Not just for breaking the nuclear taboo, but because Hezvollah et al would cream themselves and have basically infinite recruitment.
In contrast, Israel has recently had some of its citizens killed by the Iran-backed Hamas, and are bordering both Lebanon and Syria. This didn't hurt Iran from political backlash, not at all, Iran's been pretty open in their hating Israel. If for any reason the US withdrew its military backing for Israel, Iran could and would support an extended proxy war between Israel and its neighbors. Not Gaza (Israel controls their water and fuel supply, so if they're not concerned about pissing off the US and rest of the world then they can kill them all fairly easily) but Lebanon and Syria via Hezbollah and some 'renegotiation' over Golan heights.
What's more, Iran could just invade Israel outright, with Syria's support. Iran has 9x the population size and their army is reasonably modern. Without US backing, Egypt's current dictator could decide to provide military support of their own. And if they win that war then Israelis will be ethnically cleansed. Which is arguably a worse threat than what Israel could do to Iran.
There you go, it can be argued! I wouldn't normally argue for it, I'd say they're about equal personally. It's kind of weird to compare them; neither is really in a good position to fight the other in the first place.