This is junk analysis because there will always be signals that randomly correlate. There are a lot of signals out there that we can plot pairwise and the axises here aren't identical. All this says is that long term interest rates formed a hump shape, and crime formed a hump shape. There are so many hump shapes it is just a matter of finding 2 humps that peaked around the same time.
Not only that, but in this case peak interest rates were around the infamous 1970s era when a lot of policies change. So even if these are related, there is probably a hidden variable that a lot of policies changed at the same time and the two series still aren't causally related. There was likely a policy refresh on how crime gets handled at the same time as there was a policy reset on how interest rates were managed.
Yeah, this is exactly what I thought. Interest Rates correlate to a lot of things. Seems like stretch to say there is a cause, not just correlation.
Like, there is more crime in cities, but, because there are also more people. What is per-capita crime. Small town with 10 people, 1 felon, man, they are 10% felons.
Not only that, but in this case peak interest rates were around the infamous 1970s era when a lot of policies change. So even if these are related, there is probably a hidden variable that a lot of policies changed at the same time and the two series still aren't causally related. There was likely a policy refresh on how crime gets handled at the same time as there was a policy reset on how interest rates were managed.