Hacker News new | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submit login

You aren't.

The economy is absolute garbage right now.

I'm in the US and the situation is similar here. I've never had an issue finding a job before either, but I've been unemployed since the middle of 2023.

Assuming you aren't under financial hardship, my advice is to spend more time on your hobbies and check back in around July/August. That is when the layoffs are projected to drop and hiring is expected to keep up.




Every time I bring up this uneasy feeling of everything feeling like it's going to crumble soon, I get employment data hurtled at me and the stock market thrown in my face.

Maybe Canada is worse due to how insane housing is but for the average person life does not feel anywhere like it used to pre pandemic at least.


Numbers are very easy to manipulate, and are almost never predictive when removed from the original context.

Low unemployment means nothing without also referencing workforce participation rates. Economic data is also effectively useless if, for example, inflation data excludes common expenses like groceries, housing, used cars, etc.

I don't think this was always the case, but economic data today is so easily gamed that its little more than political theater.


While the numbers for the macro economy may be pretty good - for the tech sector they're terrible.


Recently surfaced here: https://www.theregister.com/2024/01/08/700_it_jobs_us/

Basically, USA probably has much more new graduates of CS a year than net jobs in tech added last year. Many would say it's like a statistical error; anyway, it's a low number.


40% of the US population is inactive. Unemployment rate has been made useless, I don't think any software developer contributes to it. The rate now is more about desperate people in critical situation than people who didn't find a job.


job market for tech workers != broader economy. blue collar wages in percentage terms have been increasing faster than white collar.

i think many orgs overinvested in tech during the pandemic. we've swung too far, so it's time to work out the excesses.


I truly do not mean this in a snarky way - who is projecting that layoffs are projected to drop and hiring is expected to pick up around July/August?


Interviewing.io compared public data to their internal data and make a compelling argument for hiring to pick up in Q2 [0], though I don't know if the recent spate of 2024 layoffs change this calculus.

[0] https://interviewing.io/blog/when-is-hiring-coming-back-pred...


Jan layoffs are "normal" (cant lay off people in holidays and new financial planning for new year) and tech isnt particularly affected (city group laid off 20k people, mostly finance), whereas most tech layoffs were in the hundreds by company and were in Companies who didnt make a profit (Twitch and Unity after their controversy)

So i believe that things are getting better as data showed December '23 being the best month of 23 for tech job growth.


the "perfectly rational markets" expect the central banks to lower interest rates. which actually assumes that something economically worse happens in the meantime because as it is now, the fed is _not_ lowering.


core CPI is dropping and most of the growth in December was real-state (which is on a downward trend)

Some consumer prices deflated last month

Wider economy job data is not as hot (december was 40k higher than expected but 70k jobs were erased from octo and november payroll so its cooling)

while the fed may not cut in march i think its likely they will cut at least once or twice in '24


yes that sounds rational. central bankers are humans with a target on their back though.


The fact that feds have signaled interest rates are going to drop this year.


I have zero faith that it is going to pick up again. There is no evidence this is going to be the case. Your time would be better spent retraining for another industry, if that is practical for you.


>That is when the layoffs are projected to drop and hiring is expected to keep up.

Or this could be the new normal.




Join us for AI Startup School this June 16-17 in San Francisco!

Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: