> Electric vehicle battery prices are falling faster than expected
> Goldman Sachs Research now expects battery prices to fall to $99 per kilowatt hour (kWh) of storage capacity by 2025 — a 40% decrease from 2022 (the previous forecast was for a 33% decline).
Again, this doesn't mean consumers will actually get cheaper batteries. Musk himself was promising $5k-$7k battery replacement, yet we saw a price increase.
If we reached Musk's promised numbers then battery replacement would no longer be an issue for me, but when we are talking $15k-$20k then something like a model 3 is scrap for me at 100k+ miles.
Again? Not sure what that means. As for 100k miles - there are cars over that now. Tesla aren’t the only game in town, and BYD is ready to eat their lunch. Competition will drive prices down.
just how cheap do you expect that to get to? right now a model s has a 90kwh battery... that's almost 9 grand to replace in 2025. there will be a floor to this and i don't think it's going to be that cheap. gm et. al. are looking into 200kwh batteries reasonably soon. that's almost 20 grand to replace or the cost of a small ICE car.
The smart money expects a Moore’s Law kind of curve here for quite some time going forward, given the economies of scale and powerful incentives.
There will be more variability than with Moore’s Law because the raw materials are more expensive, it’s not just about building a fab and then amortizing over billions of parts.
Expect a rough annual decrease of 5-15% in $/kWh for some time. We continue to find new chemistries and electrod materials that bring prices down.
Will there eventually be a floor? Yes, for sure. But we’re not there yet.
The problem here is the retail price on things does not really drop.
using a Laptop as an example, prices of Laptops go UP every year, their price / performance ratio may improve...
So in this example if your 300 Mile range battery costs $15,000 today you may be able to get a 600 mile range battery for $15,000 in the future but you will unlikely be able to buy a 300 mile range battery for $8,000
In inflation-adjusted terms the retail prices of things absolutely do drop.
Sure, Tesla might choose to only sell a 600-mile range battery for $15k instead of the 300-mile range battery for $8k. But if there’s a market for a 300-mile vehicle that costs $7k less, and that vehicle can be profitably produced, then it will very likely exist.
> Goldman Sachs Research now expects battery prices to fall to $99 per kilowatt hour (kWh) of storage capacity by 2025 — a 40% decrease from 2022 (the previous forecast was for a 33% decline).
https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/electric-veh...