Considered how expensive EVs are and since they can’t do simple things like airport return trips, I predict that gas guzzlers still have a long life ahead of them.
I know EVs will get cheaper. But there’s no chance they’ll ever be as inexpensive as the cheap gasoline cars that some people can barely afford today. It’s unavoidable for car ownership to go down on the long run.
It may not be such a bad thing to have more public transport or car sharing schemes though… but in the mean time expect disenfranchised people to vote for populists candidates that go against EV policies, hence slowing down adoption.
The tail end of EV adoption will be a lot longer than people think in opinion.
My guess is 20 years for 2/3 cars to be EVs. 10 years for new cars and another 10 for the second hand market.
It took about 10 years for SUVs to become the de facto car form factor. So I see a similar adoption here.
I know EVs will get cheaper. But there’s no chance they’ll ever be as inexpensive as the cheap gasoline cars that some people can barely afford today. It’s unavoidable for car ownership to go down on the long run.
It may not be such a bad thing to have more public transport or car sharing schemes though… but in the mean time expect disenfranchised people to vote for populists candidates that go against EV policies, hence slowing down adoption.
The tail end of EV adoption will be a lot longer than people think in opinion.
My guess is 20 years for 2/3 cars to be EVs. 10 years for new cars and another 10 for the second hand market.
It took about 10 years for SUVs to become the de facto car form factor. So I see a similar adoption here.