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I think you've hit the key - if they find a good monetization model. I remember an article on here about Facebook shutting down a social shopping experiment, but if that had panned out it could have been huge. There are always rumblings of "social search" every once in a while. Likewise, it isn't hard to imagine communications changing in the next 10 years to a system where your wireless carrier is just a data connection and Facebook could potentially power VoIP and video communications over that.

But I think the valuation is quite high for a potential that they haven't shown they can leverage their users toward. Google hasn't shown that it can leverage its might toward, say, social. However, Google's valuation isn't so high compared to its earnings. For me, it's a big bet to assume a company can drastically change its monetization.




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