Even if we get Gemini 2.0 or GPT-6 that is even better at the stuff it's good at now... you've always been able to outsource 'tasks' for cheap. There is no shortage of people that can write somewhat generic text, write chunks of self contained code, etc.
This might lower the barrier of entry but it's basically a cheaper outsourcing model. And many companies will outsource more to AI. But there's probably a reason that most large companies are not just managers and architects who farm out their work to the cheapest foreign markets.
Similar to how many tech jobs have gone from C -> C++ -> Java -> Python/Go, where the average developer is supposd to accomplish a lot more than perviously, I think you'll see the same for white collar workers.
Software engieneering didn't die because you needed so much less work to do a network stack, the expectations changed.
This is just non technical white collar worker's first level up from C -> Java.
Never underestimate management's thirst for elimiating pesky problems that come with dealing with human bodies - vacations, pregnancies, office rivalries, time zones, and heck, unionization.
I suspect the real driver of the shift to AI will be this and not lower cost/efficiency.
> management's thirst for elimiating pesky problems that come with dealing with human bodies
But that's what 95% management is for. If you don't have humans, you don't need majority of managers.
And I know of plenty of asshole managers, who enjoy their job because they get to boss people around.
And another thing people are forgetting. That end users AKA consumers will be able to use similar tech as well. So for something they used to hire a company for, they will just use AI, so you don't even need CEO's and financial managers in the end :)
Because , if software CEO can push a button to create an app that he wants to sell, so can his end-users.
My strong belief is that if someone wanted to halt AI development, they should attempt to train AI replacements for managers and politicians, and publicize it.
This might lower the barrier of entry but it's basically a cheaper outsourcing model. And many companies will outsource more to AI. But there's probably a reason that most large companies are not just managers and architects who farm out their work to the cheapest foreign markets.
Similar to how many tech jobs have gone from C -> C++ -> Java -> Python/Go, where the average developer is supposd to accomplish a lot more than perviously, I think you'll see the same for white collar workers.
Software engieneering didn't die because you needed so much less work to do a network stack, the expectations changed.
This is just non technical white collar worker's first level up from C -> Java.