> There are very very few people that are good enough that someone will just hire them on their skills alone.
IMO this is wrong, but it's hard to know precisely how wrong, just that people shouldn't be setting their expectations this low. There are tons of college kids entering in from the front of the pipeline who don't have connections or experience. Also I've just known a good number of non-traditional candidates who both have and haven't broken into the industry.
I have no idea how strong (or not) this trend is, but I broke into tech from a nontraditional path without knowing anyone. First job at a local company, so possibly some hometown advantage, but my projects and willingness to learn / being personable / general competence conveyed seemed to be what got me hired there. Second job - different company in a different state, no connections at all. I was hired even though I was fully remote until I moved (I had wanted to move to that city to begin with). Wasn't a huge deal as they are fairly remote friendly and I only go to the office once a week now that I live here, but it was still a disadvantage compared to local applicants.
It is certainly possible that I'm just lucky or good at interviewing, but even if this trend is largely true, I hope that people won't be discouraged from applying to roles they find interesting and think they could be a good fit for just because they don't have any connections.
IMO this is wrong, but it's hard to know precisely how wrong, just that people shouldn't be setting their expectations this low. There are tons of college kids entering in from the front of the pipeline who don't have connections or experience. Also I've just known a good number of non-traditional candidates who both have and haven't broken into the industry.