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I don't think so. ArianeSpace's best price for an Ariane 6 launch, with all the subsidies applied, is gonna be around $75 million, maybe more. SpaceX's sticker is $67 million for Falcon 9 and they've been known to come down $10 million or even more to win an important contract (while still preserving fairly healthy profit margins). I don't think there is a single case where a customer would pick Ariane 6 over Falcon 9 except for political reasons.



And your prices don’t even take into account the difference in payloads. (Favorable to Falcon)

The price/kg is 3-4x higher for Ariane.


There is also launch windows etc. Not everyone can or wants to wait forever.

And IIRC Ariane 6 can also bring up somewhat heavier payloads because they launch from closer to the equator?




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