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The point being?



Difficult to judge how fast it'll improve based on current capabilities


One more reason to not get caught up in the hype.

If you claim to have AGI, show it, prove it. Otherwise, I will continue to assume that it's not around the corner.

If you claim that GPT4 is close to AGI (as was done a lot), then you very likely have access to a GPT4 that I don't have access to. The actual usable thing available out there clearly isn't.

Not that long ago some people predicted that software engineers would be out of a job within weeks. "Brilliant" CTOs claimed they would replace developers with ChatGPT. What happened? Nothing.

I'll boldly predict that this time what will happen is exactly nothing again.

I may be wrong, but at least I don't waste my time with the buzz about the next "big thing" which in reality isn't ready for anything useful yet.




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