That's a great and very relevant case study, thanks for bringing it up!
The way I understand, it worked because alternatives to the ozone-destroying chemicals were known to be possible, and the costs of getting manufacturers to switch, as well as further R&D, weren't that big. I bucket it as a particularly high-profile example of the same class as most other international treaties: agreements that aren't too painful to follow.
Now in contrast to that, climate agreements are extremely painful to follow - and right now countries choose to make a fake effort without actually following. With a hypothetical AI agreement, the potential upsides of going full-steam ahead are significant, there are no known non-dangerous alternatives, so it won't be followed unless it comes with hard, painful consequences. Both climate change and AI risk are more similar to nuclear proliferation issue.
The way I understand, it worked because alternatives to the ozone-destroying chemicals were known to be possible, and the costs of getting manufacturers to switch, as well as further R&D, weren't that big. I bucket it as a particularly high-profile example of the same class as most other international treaties: agreements that aren't too painful to follow.
Now in contrast to that, climate agreements are extremely painful to follow - and right now countries choose to make a fake effort without actually following. With a hypothetical AI agreement, the potential upsides of going full-steam ahead are significant, there are no known non-dangerous alternatives, so it won't be followed unless it comes with hard, painful consequences. Both climate change and AI risk are more similar to nuclear proliferation issue.