Honestly, for the topic at hand, none of these are useful.
What we need is a bright horizontal line that says ">50% chance your society collapses in the lifetime of your children", one that says ">50% chance your society collapses in your lifetime", and one that says ">50% chance your species does not survive 100 years." To properly frame the stakes and the significance of the numbers.
> ">50% chance your society collapses in the lifetime of your children"
That's not far from the default for all of us anyway, isn't it?
Soviet Union fell apart in my lifetime; my parents were born during and just before WW2, got to see the Winds of Change.
I'm not sure about my grandparents, other than one grandmother's funeral anecdote being that she wandered off unsupervised as an infant, which had the people looking after her scared she had been eaten by a tiger because this was in a military camp in the British Raj.
No Ottoman empire, no Austro-Hungarians, and the borders of the Germany I moved to no longer go as far as what's now Калининград.
What we need is a bright horizontal line that says ">50% chance your society collapses in the lifetime of your children", one that says ">50% chance your society collapses in your lifetime", and one that says ">50% chance your species does not survive 100 years." To properly frame the stakes and the significance of the numbers.