The Cascadia quake is 100x as big. I'm at 1/3 the distance from the San Andreas fault. Guess who gets the larger earthquake?
Add to that the fact that I grew up in Victoria. All of Vancouver Island is a subduction zone during a Cascadia earthquake. Sadly, that means that a good chunk of what I knew growing up winds up under water. Seattle may fare better, but my home town does not.
Reading up now, it looks like it is 1-2 meters, mostly on the west coast of the island. But my memory of the early research when I still lived there in the early 1990s was that it was about a 3 meter drop. Between how low much of Victoria is, widespread poorly build older houses, and lots of housing built on unstable landfill in places like James Bay, my belief was that it was going to be pretty devastating to a lot of parts that I knew.
Can you back that up with some references? Very curious, I've never heard any claims that Victoria will end up under water in a big Cascadia earthquake.
An Ask an Earth-Scientist answer by Dr. Gerard Fryerm suggests a few meters is possible.
>"Will part of Vancouver Island "break off and sink," or "split in two at Alberni Inlet?" No. In a big earthquake the seafloor offshore from Vancouver Island will be uplifted and the area along the coast will sink, but at worst that sinking will only be a few meters. If you live very close to the beach and close to sea level then there is a possibility that your house will be flooded, but no big piece of the island is going to break off and disappear. It is possible that there will be submarine landslides along the steepest slopes offshore, but each of those is likely only be small in extent.
That said, https://www.esquimalt.ca/sites/default/files/greater_victori... is built on more up to date information than I had. And suggests that subsidence + tsunami is only 4 meters. Which doesn't pose a serious threat. (If they are wrong and get a 10 meter combination, of course, that would be a far, far worse story.)
The Cascadia quake is 100x as big. I'm at 1/3 the distance from the San Andreas fault. Guess who gets the larger earthquake?
Add to that the fact that I grew up in Victoria. All of Vancouver Island is a subduction zone during a Cascadia earthquake. Sadly, that means that a good chunk of what I knew growing up winds up under water. Seattle may fare better, but my home town does not.