Rational carriers and android hardware manufacturers would understand what's at stake here. Do they really want to hand the entire mobile device market to Apple because of a few updates?
The update situation has improved quite a bit since the early days of Android. I don't see any reason to think that "all of a sudden now" the market will shift entirely to Apple. The new iPhone caused some market shift, and new Android handsets and OS version will likely cause some shift back.
Hopefully Google's new "streamlined and integrated" philosophy will continue to reduce update times and further polish and unify the interface. Only time will tell.
It is nice to have a good new contender on the scene with Windows Phone though.
In regards to regular updates, Windows Phone is looking more and more like Android. Even on Microsoft's "preferred" US carrier, smaller bugfix updates are being delayed or skipped by AT&T:
Previously, Microsoft provided exact details on when specific phones on specific carriers would be getting software updates, but this policy ended in January 2012:
I’ll point them towards Apple’s iOS and Microsoft’s Windows Phone instead. At least with these platforms, you’re guaranteed core OS updates and bugfixes for the length of your contract.
I think this just isn't true. Maybe WP is currently more homogeneous than Android but clearly MS is somewhat at the mercy of the carriers here too.
I doubt that would ever happen typically technology runs a two party system. I would more look to windows phone 7 catching up. The only saving grace of android is that I would say Java developer slightly outnumber C# developers. If they don't change soon and basically actually try administrating the system it might come to an end. Google needs to hiring someone primarily for administrating android not just people to innovate for it.
