A few of the other engineers I work with think I'm crazy, but I'd bet $100 that in the next few years, Apple will produce a TV itself and remove this product from the market.
The well-known comment in the Jobs biography tipped their hand about a further commitment to TV. Literally everybody I've talked to about it balks at the idea of a full-on Apple tv set. That it's too murky, too much tangling with cable providers. Too much competition with existing set makers without the ability to really revolutionize the form-factor like cell phones. That instead they'd just give you a box that you can plug into an existing TV to make it good.
But Jobs (and Apple) have always been about "the whole widget." Moreover, they have a lot of experience building really great large displays.
Besides, TVs need it now. So-called "Smart" IP tv's are the future. TV's already have Apps. And the experience sucks because Samsung, LG, Sony, etc, are not in the business of making first-class software products. I believe the line where steve said he'd "finally cracked it." Because a lot of us I'm sure can see the rough outline of a product there. Let it run iOS. Let me remote control it with my other iOS devices. Let me integrate iTunes/etc in a first-class way. The murky part is: How exactly do you deal with existing cable content. Can I add HBO West to my home screen like an "app" right alongside the HBO Go app? That integration of these 2 side-by-side systems of content delivery (Cable and Internet) is the detail that I think needs to be "cracked." How great would it be to see this product emerge as posthumous part of Jobs' legacy..
I am reminded of years ago getting into an argument with the Apple fanatic on my staff (he was my net eng at lockheed) and I was saying that it was a certainty that apple was moving to Intel. He swore up and down this would never happen, that it was the stupidest idea he had ever heard and Apple would never leave the PowerPC platform...
What would be the difference between say a 21" or 27" iPad with Netflix and HBO Go and iTunes movies and TV shows, and an Apple TV set? We may just wake up a few product cycles from now and realize that the TV isn't necessary anymore.
What is the difference between a 21" or 27" iPad, and a 21" or 27" TV that supports AirPlay from a regular iPad "with Netflix and HBO Go and iTunes Movies and TV shows".
OK, now make the "TV" a monitor, perhaps with an HDMI input for the cable box.
The current fragmentation of the "smart TV" market is a mess: it's something that a unified environment could easily tear through.
But making the deals with content providers to create that environment is going to be astonishingly difficult. These are companies responsible for messes like http://theoatmeal.com/comics/game_of_thrones , along with the recent removals of films from Netflix by Starz. They love their monopoly on content and would likely be terrified to death by the concept of giving up control to Apple.
Not because of that. iTunes exists to make Apple’s hardware attractive, not the other way around. (Same with the App Store.) It’s pocket change for Apple. Just look at their quarterly reports to see what they are actually making money with.
They might want to keep the box around for the same reason there is a Mac mini (or they are still selling the iPhone 3GS and the iPad 2): To offer a low-priced entry point. They might also kill it because it clutters their product line. Or because it would be too cheap compared to a full-blown TV and everyone might just go with it instead of the TV.
Perhaps. But I think you have the economics backwards. Apple has said before that they break even from iTunes. iTunes exists as a low cost way for them to sell more devices.
Apple has a history of simple product lines. Supposing apple did release a tv, how would it make any sense to have a product called "AppleTV" that isn't a tv? Maybe you're right, but I stand by my own estimation.
No, they can't kill off the AppleTV with it's current form factor. They can create a TV, but the current form factor (headless) will remain. If they did, the Apple TV initiative would fail.
And I'll explain why. Just like Apple had to support Windows with their product lines, an Apple TV has to support other TVs. People like to forget that the first iPod didn't support Windows. Also consider that AppleTVs do their part in helping to sell devices. Right now, it's $99 to buy a device to extend the usefulness of my other devices. If we turn that around and I had to spend $2000 for a full blown TV just to put pictures up there? Yeah, not going to happen.
Can they release a TV? Of course! Will they rid themselves of the Apple TV as it stands? No.
On a side note:
> Apple has said before that they break even from iTunes. iTunes exists as a low cost way for them to sell more devices.
Yes. And remove iTunes from the picture and the whole ecosystem there, and see how many iPhones or iPods they sell. People buy these devices because of iTunes.
It could be the analogue of the Mac Mini compared to the iMac, it would fill a niche for those that want the Apple TV experience but already have a new fancy screen. So maybe the full TV would take over the AppleTV name and the little box would be dubbed the "AppleTV Nano". I bet it could sell well as an entry-level option if there are a range of products (and of course apps) in the ecosystem. As it is now it is an oddity.
> The murky part is: How exactly do you deal with existing cable content.
I know Apple doesn't have a history of big cash acquisitions, so take this comment with a big grain of salt.
My guess was that they were going to use that big pile of cash to buy in to the cable business, either by purchasing a premium television network like HBO, or by buying a cable provider. I dont know how realistic that is, but what if?
I'd bet $1000 that Apple will NEVER produce a TV. The fact that SJ stated they'd be more commited to the TV "segment" could as well mean they'll replace the AppleTV device by a better AppleTV thing.
The interface between a set-top box and any brand of TV is pretty much universal already (HDMI) - I don't see a reason why Apple would jump into a market known for it's absurdly small margins and with so much variance (not even Apple could convince everyone to buy TVs on the same size) - it makes a lot more sense to "control everything but the box itself" in that scenario. Granted, it's not very "Apple". It's just my gut feeling, anyway...
Literally everybody I've talked to about it balks at the idea of a full-on Apple tv set.
Not sure who you're talking to but within the CE industry this sentiment is reversed, almost everyone believes Apple is making a TV. It was expected at CES and perhaps as a surprise at the March event.
I get the feeling we are going to get these type of stories for the next several years. "Steve Jobs wouldn't have done that" or "Steve Jobs didn't like that" will be a pretty good link-baited headline.
He assembled a good crew of people who are going to do some things different (e.g. charity contributions). Some of the things might have been left as "notes / advise" by Steve Jobs in his last days and some might be new thinking. We won't really know the whole story.
The new UI is temporary just like the previous ones have been. There have been at least 3 major redesigns of the UI so far. They change as needed to introduce new features. The current design is to make room for third party content & services. In this sense the current generation Apple TV is just a place-holder for a future product. Apple has said as much by referring to it as a hobby. What they are doing is laying the groundwork for this future product. AirPlay, iOS Remote, 1080P video, third party services with sign-up and payment, iCloud, etc. The current generation Apple TV is almost just a public beta test of these technologies. When they are ready to do the 'real' Apple TV they will introduce an entirely new UI to go with it.
This sort of public R&D isn't what Apple normally does but I think the challenge of building this product requires it. They need to soften the ground a bit. Of course other companies are working on the same things which helps too. People are comfortable with IPTV services. Current residential broadband can keep up fairly well with good 1080P video. The more SmartPhones and tablets sold the closer we are to ditching a dinky multi-button remote control in favor of multi-touch control. The integration with the cloud for re-downloading content and interconnecting different devices solves a ton of usability problems. Step by step each one of these changes are laying the groundwork for something bigger.
The Apple TV had numerous different UIs over the years, so it's safe to conclude that Steve Jobs also said yes to a UI in the past that he should have thrown out.
Steve Jobs mad numerous false calls over the years. He can be wrong, you know.
When the Apple TV gets apps I think we will start to see the beginning of the end for Nintendo... thats the iPod for on the move and the Apple TV for the home casual gaming..
You can buy a wii game for £40 or almost 80 59p silly games on the Apple tv... and using iphones / ipod touches as an additional controller...
But you still need a device to stream it to... I've been looking for a way of running our conference using apple tv's I'd love to be able to send all the keynote presentations to the apple tv without having to have a device to stream them..
I find it a mixed bag. I think I navigate it faster, but it is a grid of random technicolor barf.
They should take the next step, let me exile the stuff I never use and bump up the size of the stuff I do use, or open an App ecosystem and let me add more stuff that I do want to use.
Unrelated speculation: The Apple TV has been repeatedly characterized as a "hobby" by Apple. I'm sure they'd love to distribute all major TV and movie content, but they can't get the content owners in line. But what happens now if they do get the content owners to agree to the business model of being paid by happy consumers? The Apple brand is so aglow, and the cost of the AppleTV unit so low, that the demand could go from near zero to internet crushing levels in a matter of weeks. They may have lost the luxury of a controlled ramp up.
And yet, I find it annoying to look at compared to the old UI. I'm trying to keep an open mind, but for the size of the display and the amount of info that can be displayed on it I feel like text is better than huge icons.
It's interesting -- I've been living in a furnished rental in Hawaii for the last few months where I have a very small TV (maybe 22"?) and I've had my Apple TV hooked up to it since I got here. Before the update, I found it very hard to read the menus across the room, but I do think the new design is much better for smaller screens. I have a feeling the giant blocks would irritate me if I still had my 60" plasma (sob I miss that TV) but for a more modest screen, it really makes life easier. Ideally I'd love to be able to mirror the menus in the Remote app so that I don't have to squint to read the Netflix reviews and descriptions.
Jobs threw a lot of things away that may have been sufficient, but always wanted to push for even greater implementations and innovations in new products/services.
I haven't used the latest iteration of the AppleTV UI, but I did use the last version, and I found it to be pretty terrible. Any time text input was needed, it was a nightmare.
I don't know if the new UI took care of that problem, but coupled with the remote (clearly a case of aesthetics chosen of utility), I found the entire experience to be decidedly less enjoyable than any other living room interface - XBox360, PS3, or any cable set top box.
You can use your iPad / iPhone for text input -- but that isn't what this article is addressing. They moved from a text menu type selection system to a grid of applications type system.
Seems like a very long leap from "Now there is nobody to say 'no' to bad design." to "The new UI is no doubt cleaner, simpler, easier to use, and more in line with the now-popular iPad UI and Lion’s Launchpad." If I weren't wearing such a well-constructed tinfoil hat I'd say that someone got a call from an Apple legal employee who wasn't happy to be working on a Saturday.
Isn't Apple TV one of the less successful Apple products? Some may even say a rare flop(by Apple standards).
The bar is very high for Apple products. The iPod killed the CD player. The iPhone revolutionized the phone market. But the Apple TV? It's yet to cause much disruption.
Hard to say. I think Apple said they sold 3 million of them last year which would make it very successful within the tiny dedicated IPTV set top market. It's not really a finished product yet. The current Apple TV is like the Motorola Rockr. A hint of things to come but definitely not ready to make a big splash. It's interesting to note though that NetFlix says they stream more video to Apple TVs than iPads. So something is definitely starting to happen here but I think we're still a couple of years away from the Apple TV really being a mass market device.
I find it interesting because for all of the hype about Apple's mindshare and marketing prowess a quickly expanding market exists where Apple is a niche player. Internet enabled TV's and boxes are ubiquitous and very popular yet Apple can't make a significant dent in that market despite being an early pioneer.
The well-known comment in the Jobs biography tipped their hand about a further commitment to TV. Literally everybody I've talked to about it balks at the idea of a full-on Apple tv set. That it's too murky, too much tangling with cable providers. Too much competition with existing set makers without the ability to really revolutionize the form-factor like cell phones. That instead they'd just give you a box that you can plug into an existing TV to make it good.
But Jobs (and Apple) have always been about "the whole widget." Moreover, they have a lot of experience building really great large displays.
Besides, TVs need it now. So-called "Smart" IP tv's are the future. TV's already have Apps. And the experience sucks because Samsung, LG, Sony, etc, are not in the business of making first-class software products. I believe the line where steve said he'd "finally cracked it." Because a lot of us I'm sure can see the rough outline of a product there. Let it run iOS. Let me remote control it with my other iOS devices. Let me integrate iTunes/etc in a first-class way. The murky part is: How exactly do you deal with existing cable content. Can I add HBO West to my home screen like an "app" right alongside the HBO Go app? That integration of these 2 side-by-side systems of content delivery (Cable and Internet) is the detail that I think needs to be "cracked." How great would it be to see this product emerge as posthumous part of Jobs' legacy..