Confusing, I clicked through on my RSS reader, and somehow landed on the original version of that post being submitted to HN -- and accidentally left a comment on that page. Anyway, now that I'm in the right place...
I think I did alright in that post. #3 came true (for the most part, though none of the big boys are relying parties). #2 was sort of half right. Sort of. And, #5 was a little bit right -- iPhone 3G has been one of the best-selling phones of the year and mobile apps are finally a big story (big enough to get mainstream television coverage, at least).
half right, little bit right, sort of.. :) But agreed yours is better than the rest. But your predictions were also pretty broad.
[On #3 - we all know OpenID hasn't taken off. http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=375011]
I found dcurtis predictions then a lot better. Except for #7 which was a total give away.
1. Semantic web searching will not even dent Google.
2. EVDO/UMTS/WiMAX will finally make the internet as ubiquitous as cellular phone technology. 2008 is the year of connected portable devices. Kindle, iPhone, and Dash are its origins.
3. The iPhone will gain a huge chunk of the mobile device market, and after the 3G version is introduced with a spiffy sdk, it will engulf Windows Mobile like a bear eating an ant.
4. This election will have the most informed voters in history due to the ease of research through Wikipedia. (Though the actual voting will be just as aimless.)
5. OpenID-based login systems will grow in popularity.
I would love to see a site that tracks predictors' prediction records.
It seems that almost all predictors' (or maybe all of them) have a dismal accuracy record. (Especially in the financial sector as we've seen this year)
I think I did alright in that post. #3 came true (for the most part, though none of the big boys are relying parties). #2 was sort of half right. Sort of. And, #5 was a little bit right -- iPhone 3G has been one of the best-selling phones of the year and mobile apps are finally a big story (big enough to get mainstream television coverage, at least).
Now, quick... someone buy Tumblr.