> it's unrealistic to assume that a country of 1.4 Billion people can not catch up eventually
Why? By 2100, each of Pakistan, the D.R.C. and Kenya are forecast to have larger populations than America [1]. Is it unrealistic to assume they won’t be at parity with the west in eighty years? (Note: not saying dismiss entirely. Just baselines.)
China has a lot going for it in semiconductors. Demography isn’t one of them. The population is aging and shrinking. That, ceteris paribus, reduces surplus capital for R&D.
> By 2100, each of Pakistan, the D.R.C. and Kenya are forecast to have larger populations than America. Is it unrealistic to assume they won’t be at parity with the west in eighty years?
Pakistan has the best chances to rise, at least assuming religious / ethnic tensions can be somewhat placated, it doesn't become a hotbed of natural disasters like last year's floods and they don't either get into open war with India or suffer from some sort of coups by the military or secret services.
Kenya and especially Congo? That's a different game entirely. Climate change, utter poverty and endemic corruption are just a couple of the hurdles to pass.
Because PRC is not systemically comparable to those countries just like Japan isn't comparable to a larger Nigeria.
Only the most cognitively challenged demographic determinists argue larger population = more capability. Useful demographic analysis more than naive reading of demographic pyramid, it's recognizing unlike most developing countries, PRC has established record to upskill/cultivate and coordinate human capita at scale. And is projected to have multiple times more skilled talent than US by 2050s, moving from current 25% high skilled workforce to 60/70/80% to reflect workforce composition of advanced economies over time.
>Demography isn’t one of them
More than anyone, demography is PRC's greatest advantage for semi and other high tech industries in relevant timelines we're talking about. The workforce for high skilled talent is exploding for another 30+ years. Short/medium term PRC has by relevant measures, the greatest skilled demographic divident ever, and even in stagnation they'll be settling with largest (or second largest relative to India) pool of skilled workforce, with again proven ability to coordinate (i.e. not India performance).
Even 2100 PRC working age population is still ~2x of 2100 US if you tally up pyramid projections of 20-65 yr olds. Except PRC's 2100 workforce will likely have more than 2x current skilled talent instead of being dragged down by 100s of millions of farmers and surplus informal workers who will age out post 2050s to be replaced by better educated/more productive cohorts. Same way other Asian tigers grew despite "bad demographics" - by continuously upskilling % of workforce initially dominated by peasants over time.
This is why current analysis of US semi workforce project 80k short term shortage to balloon to 300-400k medium term. SKR, TW both have current/short term 50-100k shortage. The TLDR is SKR, TW (and JP) have nearly satuated their workforce in terms of skilled talent, and can't replace at parity. US expanding fabs as rate their talent pipeline can't catch up, and the ability to import/brain drain is limited because they'll be taking from other CHIP4 partners also undergoing shortage. Which leaves PRC, who after elevating semi to first-level dicipline in 2018 is pumping out about 30k IC graduates per year. They're still about 200k short, ~520k/720k (400k in 2018) out of what IC talent 2018 white paper estimated PRC needed for completely indigenous semi industry, which US isn't currently even trying to pursue, still ultimately relying on east asian semi supply chains. Long term US may to get there, but right now only PRC is sent to close semi labour force gap within the decade. Ultimately, talent is just as important in industrial policy as money. PRC has both. Their biggest shortcoming is being behind, which will likely be addressed by investing sufficient talent and money.
Why? By 2100, each of Pakistan, the D.R.C. and Kenya are forecast to have larger populations than America [1]. Is it unrealistic to assume they won’t be at parity with the west in eighty years? (Note: not saying dismiss entirely. Just baselines.)
China has a lot going for it in semiconductors. Demography isn’t one of them. The population is aging and shrinking. That, ceteris paribus, reduces surplus capital for R&D.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_grow...