There are many factors. The minivan itself is dying, and it's almost a "perfect" car for many use cases - can hold 8, can get car-like mileage, can hold as much as an SUV, is easier to get into.
But they're dying because people ain't buying, because the costs are so high and those with the money to buy new vehicles don't like them.
There is NOTHING preventing small SUVs that hold 5 people and cargo, get really good mileage, and are cheap(ish) - but they don't exist used because they don't exist new.
(It's sad, because I'm buying a new minivan, and I could not make the PHEV Pacifica make sense no matter how I finagled the financial numbers, the Sienna is simply unavailable at reasonable trim levels, and nobody makes an EV minivan.)
Most carmakers don't sell most of their new cars on the order it and it shows up model. They send to dealers and you buy them. Our local dealer has 2 on the lot right now. I live in a small city surrounded by much larger ones. We don't have some exceptional line on new Toyotas.
I drive by the dealer everyday. 2 currently there. Personally, I've found dealers don't honor lines. One salesman told me that when they got the car I was looking for in stock they start calling people and the first person to physically show up AND sign the sales papers gets it. I ordered a Tesla after that experience.
Often the manufacturers allocate vehicles to dealers on somewhat of a random lottery, so if you need one fast you're often best traveling to the dealer that's as far away from a big city as possible.
I got my Sienna about 3 years ago. 21k miles and paid $20k cash for it. It's got 40k miles now but seems like it's easily going to cruise for another 125k miles. I'll drive it until the kids are done with school so probably another 7 years. I work from home and the kids school is 3 blocks away so only real driving is to vacations.
Besides the "cool factor" it's really the perfect vehicle.
> There is NOTHING preventing small SUVs that hold 5 people and cargo, get really good mileage, and are cheap(ish) - but they don't exist used because they don't exist new.
How much cargo you want? I think the mid-size sector favorites (CR-V, RAV4, etc.) come pretty close to this, especially if you are willing to use a cargo box.
Both are IIUC substantially smaller than the typical minivan, and the recent CR-V redesign especially looks bigger than it is. Honda also has the HR-V, which is a smaller crossover thing with much stronger classic hatchback vibes; not sure if Toyota sells anything similar.
Kia's coming in fast and is what we went with. Everyone's promising hybrid and EV but that doesn't help when the baby arrives sooner than the vehicle can ship.
Honda's really dated now and needs a strong refresh. Toyota's king of the market and it shows they know, I wish someone would light a fire under them a bit.
"There is NOTHING preventing small SUVs that hold 5 people and cargo, get really good mileage, and are cheap(ish) - but they don't exist used because they don't exist new."
I have a chevy silverado with a crew cab. I put my 6 family members in it regularly. I get 20-25mpg on the highway because the engine shuts down 4 cylinders when I'm cruising. I have had hondas, toyotas, BMWs and I have to say in my opinion, american full-size trucks are the greatest cars on the road today in terms of trading-off size, efficiency, reliability, range, price (maybe not now) etc. I never thought of myself as a "truck guy" until I got one. Its a hard pill for many to swallow.
20-25 miles highway is absolutely appalling. Like shockingly terrible. A conventional ICE minivan would get 10-15 extra mpg with additional room for passengers, and would cost less. A reasonably sized hybrid would easily get double the mileage.
In my opinion, full size trucks are the absolute worst vehicles on the road in terms of those trade offs. You get pitiful gas mileage, a tiny cab, high prices, and the thing is absolutely massive despite most folks only generally using a tiny portion of it at a time.
IMO the only justifiable reason to drive a pickup is if you tow or carry extremely volumes of stuff on a near daily basis.
I sure am glad no one needs to justify their car purchases by you. Daily use of a pickup with extreme volumes sounds like an unreasonable high bar for justification. What if it was every other day?
I don't need extra room for passengers, I need extra room for other stuff, lumber, pipes, etc. I've had a van before, and I think the tradeoffs are better in terms of the truck. Not all folks that have trucks are soccer moms that use it to drop off the kids like you think.
The truck market in the USA is pretty darn competitive, and people don't buy them because of "penis issues" as many seem to think. If they sold the six door version, I might go with one, but you can't load tiny kids in the front bench. https://www.kingseriespickup.com is a bit beyond me :D
They're damn usable vehicles, especially if you consider the entire market from the Maverick up to the super-duty.
Someone should do the math on the environmental aspects of one largish vehicle for a family vs a largish + smaller (e.g, when does the fuel savings of the smaller finally out run the cost of acquiring said smaller).
I was supremely disappointed that the Transit full-size van is NOT available in passenger in the EV version. Might have almost stretched the budget for that.
The VW Multivan Hybrid is great! The electric range is quite small (60km I think?) compared to a full EV but still sufficient for some daily trips. And smaller batteries charges fast.
Minivans are mostly dying because the designs all look like they came from junior designers who hope to one day grow up and work on a real car. Not that it's their fault. They manufacture these things on set platforms and none of them do any justice to the shape of the vehicle.
But they're dying because people ain't buying, because the costs are so high and those with the money to buy new vehicles don't like them.
There is NOTHING preventing small SUVs that hold 5 people and cargo, get really good mileage, and are cheap(ish) - but they don't exist used because they don't exist new.
(It's sad, because I'm buying a new minivan, and I could not make the PHEV Pacifica make sense no matter how I finagled the financial numbers, the Sienna is simply unavailable at reasonable trim levels, and nobody makes an EV minivan.)