That depends on how it all crashes. If it was fraud, then yes. But there are ways in which it can crash that would result in more funding to rule out spurious or transient effects that by themselves suggest interesting areas of research.
But yes, the chance of a 'superconductivity winter' is definitely there. What surprises me is how this whole thing has blown up. People that would not be able to tell a copper wire from an aluminum one are talking about superconductors. That really gets me, why the sudden massive interest?
> People that would not be able to tell a copper wire from an aluminum one are talking about superconductors
i know this was hyperbole, but I think the fact that it is almost certainly false is important.
I think the reason that people are so excited is that you can learn the basic facts about superconductivity in a few hours on wikipedia. The basics are not that complicated: Superconductors have zero resistance below a critical temperature, are diamagnetic due to induced eddy currents that cancel out magnetic fields, and the high temperature ones exhibit "flux pinning" where magnetic field lines can get stuck at defects in the material, leading to stable levitation.
Having learned all this over the past week, I certainly don't consider myself an expert. I'm well aware I don't know 10% of what a first year physics grad student probably knows. But it's enough to follow along, and ask basic questions. Its _okay_ for people to do this even if they aren't remotely qualified to make final judgments about LK99.
To me it seems no more improper than someone talking excitedly about the rocket equation or orbital mechanics even though they don't have an aerospace degree.
As for why the sudden massive interest? Why wouldn't there be massive interest? Its a huge potential breakthrough, with multiple claimed reproductions already, and, most astonishingly, it could have been discovered (though not understood) in the 19th century! Maybe even earlier! Of course the fact that something so basic was just lying around waiting to be found is generating interest!
I know what you're getting at but your list isn't the 'basics', those are the symptoms. It's like saying you understand the basics about cancer because tumors grow and people die. It doesn't even begin to scratch the surface and it certainly isn't the basics, it is just the part that laypeople (myself included) see when looking from the outside in.
The 'basics' not being so simple is exactly why the search for conveniently usable superconductors is an ongoing thing after a century. Copper wire was solved on the day we needed it, and even if it would not have worked we would have had a whole bunch of fall back materials available.
I didn't say "the basics of superconductor theory" I said "the basic facts about superconductors", and I stand by my claim that those facts are enough to form an opinion about LK99 that is "above the noise floor", if you will.
Ermm, no, that was a literal quote, as you can see from your own comment halfway up the page.
And those bits aren't nearly enough to form an opinion about LK99, it may be enough to form an opinion about what the appearance of a generic, cheap room temperature super conductor might do for the world from a lay persons perpective. But it doesn't say anything about LK99.
I think there is a number of reasons this blew up, but I think the biggest one is the lack of good news.
We all see weirder weather than we used to and man made climate change is implicated.
War in Ukraine.
Tensions with China.
Political turmoil in the U.S. with small minorities driving the news cycle with crazy talk.
We just got through COVID, and hopefully end of the inflation scare.
Housing prices suck the hope out of most on a daily basis.
Suddenly, a miracle material seems to appear that could change the game at so many levels, not owned by one corporation or country. And its a magnet, and everyone loves magnets....its the one things we've all experienced that feels like magic...and that magic was going to save us.
This is how I feel. I chose to have children with the knowledge that there is a very real possibility that they may inherit a hell scape when I’m dead. The thought of them having the possibility of a better future combined with finally having something positive to hope for fills a void that I believe many people share.
Interesting, there may be something to your observation. It also explains why you get these 'fireman rescues cat' news articles, even when there is plenty of other news, most of it very negative. And guess what then gets talked about.
But yes, the chance of a 'superconductivity winter' is definitely there. What surprises me is how this whole thing has blown up. People that would not be able to tell a copper wire from an aluminum one are talking about superconductors. That really gets me, why the sudden massive interest?