What will also be interesting imo is seeing what CCF looks like in another 20 years after we've (maybe) gone through another recession. Will they cut back the menu to save labor costs from needing so many people who can cook wildly different dishes at the same time? Smaller restaurants with less kitchen space? More centralization of food prep that is then shipped into an individual location flash frozen?
Businesses that try to expand too much (in all senses of the idea) will face scaling issues and potentially need to cut scope to increase efficiency and lower costs, or be forced to raise prices to compensate. CCF has been around for 45 years according to Wikipedia and has only gotten bigger and more complex at the individual store level. For a restaurant, that is an incredible feat and deserves a lot of analysis that can hopefully be shared with smaller chains or owner-operators to help them find profitability with their existing "small" menus.
Cheesecake factory is probably maxed out in terms of expansion. They are only found in the one or two sides of a city that has residents with higher incomes, in or near the mall with the Apple Store and Nordstroms.
Their market cap has not gone anywhere in 10+ years and they earn meager profit margins, so I assume people whose job it is to analyze the businesses have mostly predicted there is not much room for expansion.
I had never thought about it much and I don’t routinely eat out locally but the one location I could identify off the top of my head, it’s because I sometimes go to the Apple Store in the mall.
I would bet that 20 years from people will lament how Cheesecake Factory used to be good but quality has declined. The fact of the matter is CF is swimming upstream against fast-changing tastes and habits... more takeout/delivery and less dine-in, more preference for small, local, ethnic, fast. Read the comments in this thread -- "hate to admit it", "depressing", "overindulgent", "haven't been to one in years" -- the entire idea of enjoying a large meal at an American chain restaurant is hugely out-of-fashion.
But just still being around in 20 years would be a huge accomplishment (which I think it will achieve). I could roll off a dozen sit-down chain restaurants that were pretty damn popular not very long ago that are dead or on their last legs. TGIFriday, Tony Roma, Marie Callendar, Houlihans, Macaroni Grill, Claim Jumper...
The family dining / lower causal dining market segment (relatively cheap sit-down restaurant, with a waiter) is being squeezed pretty aggressively. The fast-casual segment (order at the counter, but not fast food) was already growing before the pandemic, and those were much better suited to pivoting to take-out and delivery when COVID hit.
As a whole, Americans are demonstrating that they care more about the food quality than the service at a restaurant, by eating at restaurants that, holding price approximately equal, sacrifice service in exchange for better food, rather than eating at family-dining establishments that do the opposite.
> people will lament how Cheesecake Factory used to be good but quality has declined.
I'm also making that prediction. Restaurants are especially susceptible to enshittification. I remember when I worked at Ruby Tuesday in the 90's, it was upscale enough that all servers wore a shirt and tie. They were big on polished brass and wood interior, coupled with above-average food made mostly fresh. These days, it's a glorified Burger King with a salad bar.
What will also be interesting imo is seeing what CCF looks like in another 20 years after we've (maybe) gone through another recession. Will they cut back the menu to save labor costs from needing so many people who can cook wildly different dishes at the same time? Smaller restaurants with less kitchen space? More centralization of food prep that is then shipped into an individual location flash frozen?
Businesses that try to expand too much (in all senses of the idea) will face scaling issues and potentially need to cut scope to increase efficiency and lower costs, or be forced to raise prices to compensate. CCF has been around for 45 years according to Wikipedia and has only gotten bigger and more complex at the individual store level. For a restaurant, that is an incredible feat and deserves a lot of analysis that can hopefully be shared with smaller chains or owner-operators to help them find profitability with their existing "small" menus.