On: CPI for all items rises 0.2% in June; shelter up

[RamblingCTO]

I wanted to compare to Germany, as life feels very expensive. Seems it got better: - food: -0.1% - clothing: -1.2% - energy: 0 - aclohol: +0.6%

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/Prices/Consumer-Pr...

[laidoffamazon → RamblingCTO]

European inflation is calculated differently than how the BLS calculates it.

[iSnow → RamblingCTO]

What matters mostly are the YoY changes, and they are still pretty bad.

[drewg123 → iSnow]

Can you explain why YoY matters most?

It has always seemed like a very laggy indicator to me. Eg, if inflation is brought under control, the YoY numbers will make it look like there is still inflation on-going for the next 12 months. To me, that seems almost dangerous, as it will provoke inflation countermeasures from the government, and inflation reactions from business & labor (price/wage increases) that will in turn lead to even more inflation..

[MR4D → drewg123]

MoM numbers can be bumpy and bounce around a bit every month regardless. YoY numbers smooth out that bumpiness.

It's very possible that next month we see numbers go up, which would make this report an outlier, and the YoY numbers more accurate.

If you look at the Energy row, you can see this month over month variation is quite high.

[laidoffamazon → iSnow]

3% YoY vs 4% last month and 9% last year are excellent, not pretty bad.

For comparison yoy inflation in 1983/1984 (massive win for the incumbent president) was >3% and >4% respectively with a significantly higher unemployment rate

[iSnow → laidoffamazon]

We were talking about German numbers in this branch.