> Anyway, in the next 20 years, virtually all ICE vehicles need to go away.
Is this actually possible? i.e. are there actually enough resources and production capacity to replace all ICE vehicles on the road in two decades. I remember hearing Elon Musk suggest it'd take about double that.
Don't forget walking, bicycles, e-bikes, electric motorcycles, working from home, buses, etc.
Yes, we are behind schedule, and we can't get there just by replacing ICE cars one for one with electric cars, but there is plenty more we can do.
Living in walkable neighborhoods. Demanding better infrastructure for more than just cars. Working from home if you have a desk job.
And of course personal transport is only part of it. Electricity generation. Industrial precesses like steelmaking, and concrete will need to go carbon neutral as well.
Electric cars will be part of it, though. Those infrastructure changes won't happen overnight, we need all possible options at our disposal, it's not either/or, it's "yes, and."
From my narrow viewpoint in the US mountain west I think the future will look like increase in all those green technologies you mention alongside a legacy of ICE vehicles still in use. There are numerous reasons, some more valid than others, that will stop people transitioning away from ICE. So we'll need tech to counteract that effect. A complete transition to EV is naively optimistic in my opinion.
Is this actually possible? i.e. are there actually enough resources and production capacity to replace all ICE vehicles on the road in two decades. I remember hearing Elon Musk suggest it'd take about double that.