The Metaculus prediction weights predictors by how accurate they've been.

yunohn · on June 27, 2023

Yes, but if voters are voting the majority (and probable) decision, that just continues the trend of predicting obvious outcomes.

It’s not something to do with understanding domain knowledge and voting based on scientific research.

avionical · on June 27, 2023

I wouldn't say AGI in 10 years is predicting an obvious outcome. And the same goes for many other questions on the site.

yunohn · on June 29, 2023

It will trend towards the major opinion as it gets closer to 10yrs. They haven’t been around long enough.