>For advances in computing, "double the performance every 18 months" would seem like a good upper bound.
But not a realistic one past the mid '00s. Due to the end of Dennard scaling[1] that sort of exponential performance increase is no longer available. At this point a fundamental breakthrough (quantum computing for example) would be required to get a large and cheap increase in computing capability. That puts the hardware side in more or less the same situation as the algorithmic side. A fundamental breakthrough is required. That does not help with the uncertainty here. This stuff is more or less impossible to predict.
But not a realistic one past the mid '00s. Due to the end of Dennard scaling[1] that sort of exponential performance increase is no longer available. At this point a fundamental breakthrough (quantum computing for example) would be required to get a large and cheap increase in computing capability. That puts the hardware side in more or less the same situation as the algorithmic side. A fundamental breakthrough is required. That does not help with the uncertainty here. This stuff is more or less impossible to predict.
[1] https://www.extremetech.com/computing/116561-the-death-of-cp...