It's not a hobby. Apple obviously devoted most of its software engineering resources for the past year on Vision Pro. iOS 17 and macOS 14 are the most minor "major" updates I've seen in many years, perhaps ever.
Nothing even remotely close to that ever occurred with the "hobby" Apple TV. At WWDC, visionOS was a major focus. And during the keynote, I've never seen Tim Cook as excited as he was that day. He's normally quite sedate, almost robotic.
I for one have been waiting a very long time for a comfortable headset I can do work from regardless of my physical orientation. Sitting, standing, on an airplane, at a desk, on a hammock -- hell, someday even while hiking or driving. I want a single device where I can safely and effectively operate, primarily for professional use.
I have purchased many VR headsets to this end but none have had any staying power. I think Apple has the capital, engineering experience, and aesthetic / practical sensibility to make it happen properly for productivity, so I am cautiously optimistic. I am glad they focused on productivity instead of gaming. I want a machine I can use, not a toy to play with.
Any take saying it is casual / hobby is missing the boat I think. It has the potential, if it delivers on being a usable productivity headset, to completely redefine our relationships with tech, from business to entertainment and everything in between. That has a massive financial upside that is largely future proof, and translates directly into the tech needed for effective neural interfacing (on the computational side). It could be approaching the "end game" for human-technology symbiosis -- at least for maintaining a semblance of humanity, which many of us will want to do indefinitely if given the choice.
On this theme, I recently read a persuasive essay (via HN IIRC) arguing that Vision Pro development has spun off all manner of software advances that can be seen across the product line.
Sort of like a NASA for Apple software. (So like where's the Tang ?)
Hate to break it to you but there is no more Moore's law. Or at least not like it used to be.
It used to be when you did a shrink you got (1) faster clocks, (2) lower power consumption, (3) more transistors per square cm, (4) lower cost per transistor.
We lost (1) around 2005, we are losing (4) right now. It's not accidental at all that people are complaining about the 40-series graphics cards not being worth it because the price per transistor is now going sideways and may very well go up.
Why the fuck would they call it a “hobby”? How does that help sell units or motivate the employees or the third party developers or anything? Sure, you can have the opinion that it’s not a major product (debatable), but why would they call it that, even if it was true?
No. Augmented reality is great for engineering, security and many other workplace settings. employers will be knowing Exactly how stoned employees are. apple made a design for designs to be built on and no it isnt a waste. Just boring
"The Macintosh uses an experimental pointing device called a ‘mouse’. There is no evidence that people want to use these things." (1984)
"Maybe when the smoke clears, we will have heard the last of Steve Jobs as guru, seer, visionary and hapless victim too ... He'll go the way of pet rock, electric carving knives, silly putty, Tiny Tim, and the three-tone paint job. Let's hope so." (1985)
"The noisiest buzz in the industry lately has been over the emerging use of cable TV systems to provide fast network data transmissions using a device called a cable modem. But the likelihood of this technology succeeding is zilch. It's one of those interesting-sounding ideas that will attract what venture capitalists call dumb money." (1997)
"If [Apple's] smart, it will call the iPhone a 'reference design' and pass it to some suckers to build with someone else's marketing budget. Then it can wash its hands of any marketplace failures. [... ] It should do that immediately before it's too late." (2007)
"I cannot see [the iPad] escaping the tablet computer dead zone any time soon" (2010)
"I consider this situation to be dire for Apple. When the iPhone 5 arrives shortly, it will be crunch time for the company. ... It may be the last important iPhone."
(2012)
"Within the decade, Microsoft should have a minimum of 300 stores. They should do as well as the Apple Stores"
(2012)
"If [Apple's upcoming watch] can't replace the iPhone completely it's a goner."
(2014)
"Apple mentions the Mac less and less at its big events. The company knows that the machine is a drain on resources that detracts from its new core business ... Mac will be phased out and the whole line will be replaced by iPads."
(2017)
This is The Correct Answer[tm]. Me, three months ago:
Jobs referred to early Apple TV as a "hobby". For years. Time enough for a nascent market to mature, for the technology to catch up with the ambitions.
That's how Apple/Cook should refer to Apple VR/AR.
Under promise, over deliver.
Projecting 1m unit sales the first year is nutty. Sure, they might sell that many. And then what?
Also, the initial models should be over priced, specifically targeting sexy use cases. Ridiculously expensive, maximally awesome, hype building applications. Like telemedicine, protein folding, and walking tours of fictional settlements on Mars.
Let people imagine and build boutique applications for a couple years, normalize the emerging market, before introducing a consumer mass market model.
It's about managing expectations, especially of critics and Wall St.
Of course Apple is serious about AR/VR.
--
Citing "Moore's Law" wasn't the best word choice. Methinks it's short-hand for "Wright's Law". In this instance, it's about the displays, not the CPUs. Pixels vs transistors.
Vision Pro's displays are amazing. And expensive. And supply constrained.
Apple separately announced they'll be making their own. And they'll eventually be cheap(er) and plentiful(ler).
Nothing even remotely close to that ever occurred with the "hobby" Apple TV. At WWDC, visionOS was a major focus. And during the keynote, I've never seen Tim Cook as excited as he was that day. He's normally quite sedate, almost robotic.