What do you mean? How can this end poorly? Most people browsing Reddit are addicted with no viable substitutes. Breaking their addiction through continued blackouts would end badly. Replacing some mods no user cares about will hardly have an impact.
Yes, let's be realistic. Most people browsing reddit are not addicted. This isn't 2013. The site is massive, and, the most important users aren't just random "terminally online" people. Continuing to antagonize a key "constituency" in what makes the platform so incredibly valuable is a TERRIBLE strategy. Even replacing mods of small / unimportant (alone) subreddits is not a good idea (right now).
That said, I do think Reddit Inc. can solve this without having to "give" too much ... in fact, I think Reddit Inc. could come out BETTER off if they go about this the right way.
Fundamentally, that way is relatively simple and should be easier for them, as well - basically, showing communities, mods, etc. some basic respect. No more dissembling, no more misleading / outright incorrect communication, no more "royal edict" tone in decisions - and, ideally, just the most basic overtures to involving 3rd parties that have HELPED the platform grow and thrive (regardless of whether they've benefitted directly financially or not) ... some basic cleanup of PR and decision-making processes would be very helpful for all. Hell, even a simple apology for some of what has happened - no one needs to be "wrong" for that to be the case. And, I don't think there is any particular person or party that is right or wrong, here. Just terrible communications and decisions, probably "distributed", realistically.
If not, the platform likely isn't going off a cliff, but it'll be a shell of its former self and likely enter a classic decline a la LiveJournal, Tumblr, etc. This may be likely in any case, but they hardly need to guarantee it before they've even IPO'ed.
Many people using scroll sites are addicted and do it compulsively.
It does not mean they are “terminally online” or dysfunctionally addicted, but they are addicted and relatively unable to drop scrolling regularly as a habit.
Also, mods are volunteers and it’s completely normal for volunteers to be dismissed. There are no laws that grant them any entitlements from, claims to, or ownership of Reddit.
Reddit won’t become a shell of itself if mod dismissal and replacement happens. Most of the users don’t know the moderators nor do they care. A vocal minority will be upset and very loud for two weeks and then continue using the site as normal.
There is some value in not rocking the boat and keeping existing mods, but Reddit can easily survive replacing them.
This does not mean that I champion, condone, or endorse how Reddit has been acting. But I’m just stating that these platforms don’t fail as quickly as some people claim they would.
Groups of vocal users have been abandoning Facebook for years, and it’s still tremendously popular. Reddit is similar. A critical mass of users carries a lot of momentum.
Replacing these volunteer moderators with paid moderators is obviously not in the cards, which can only mean Reddit wants to replace these volunteer moderators with other volunteer moderators. Assuming anyone volunteers in the first place.
Given that moderation is a thankless (and, in this case, unpaid) job, do you really think that many people with good intentions are stepping forward to take on that responsibility? Or is Reddit accidentally gonna recruit a bunch of trolls who turn r/apple into a hentai and piracy forum?
>Given that moderation is a thankless (and, in this case, unpaid) job
And a shit one, too. Years ago when i was moderating "not too big, not too small" subreddit about certain game, i was routinely receiving death threats and stuff like that for deleted comments, bans and etc.
Yes. Yes I do think people will volunteer. There's never been a shortage of mods, in fact reddit has been way over-moderated for about 5 years now. I don't see why there would suddenly be a shortage now. People love having power.
What's better? A site where people love your service and aren't looking for alternatives?
Or one where you've pissed off a decent portion of your userbase, encouraging them to be on the lookout for alternatives to move to?
Reddit could be like, say, Valve, universally liked (or at least, not disliked), making it virtually impossible even with gargantuan effort to take market share.
Or they can be like Digg, their predecessor, or any other number of dead services over time who kept turning the screws on their users and found out there is indeed a point at which it is too much.
Digg and Tumblr are some clear precedents where users walked away and a seemingly robust network effect collapsed. Moving on to "the next thing" on the Internet is a lot easier than some people seem to think.
Lets be realistic.