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I accept that players with the same ELO can have unequal strength.

But I don't see how that wouldn't average out over lots of games?




The probability of player A being up a rook over player B is higher when player A is better than player B, even if their Elo is the same. So the author has picked scenarios where player A is already more likely to be better than player B but assumed they were of equal skill, which will cause the results to be biased.

If I have time later I'll try to whip up a small coin-tossing demo in Python that demonstrates what I mean, I'm definitely not the best explainer!


OK, that's a reasonable argument at least.

My gut feel is that the effect is minimal at best, but I don't have an argument for that.




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