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> I'm decently sure that you could pick any two players of the same Elo on lichess and one will win the majority of games.

Interesting hypothesis, but my intuition is that this effect is small. It should be easy to measure. Just take random matches, and study winrate when a player has beaten their opponent once before.




Players can also swap back and forth between winning a majority of games, so it depends on the amount of games we're talking about.




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