Sam Altman can bet right now. If he truly believes in this risk, he could bet his entire company, shut everything down, and lobby for a complete ban on AI research. If the outcome is certain death, this seems like a great bet to make.
Indeed. It's probably what I would do if I were him. Or direct OpenAI entirely into AI safety research and stop doing capabilities research. I watched his interview with Lex Fridman,[1] and I didn't think he seemed very sincere. On the other hand I think there are a lot of people who are very sincere, like Max Tegmark.[2]
