Interesting how none of these imagined scenarios involve China not attacking Taiwan. Like, for example, Xi dies slightly earlier than expected and the next, younger, head of state doesn't have the "Oh god I need to cement my 'legacy' before I turn 90 years old" problem and can indefinitely kick the Taiwan can down the road.
Yesterday, I read something in the FT where it was suggesting a lot of Chinese leaders resent the west for goading it into attacking Taiwan. The problem is the west isn't doing that, but when China acts as though it is, it escalates tensions, and the west responds in-kind. The obvious solution for China is don't attack Taiwan, but Xi thinks he's entitled to be the leader that reunifies China. He lacks Deng Xiaoping's patience.
Ahhh, I mean there has historically been an ebb and flow in the focus of Chinese leaders. Some are outward focused, some are more domestically focused, some are more interested in legacy, some are more interested in financial overhauls. Yada yada.
In context of the article, I think this scenario would still be expected to bring the market cap of TSMC to near-zero. I believe GP's second scenario was intended to capture the predicted realities of a Taiwanese military victory.
The fact that Putin and Xi are close and Putin made a move unthinkable a few years ago shows that these autocrats mean serious business. It's not some fiction novel story anymore.
