I'm not really worried about mRNA per-se I'm worried about an unvetted delivery mechanism. Did you know its rare but accepted that some dogs get injection site tumors and we don't really know why? That would surely be a latent effect in dogs, why do we think it could never happen in humans who live much longer?
> I'm not really worried about mRNA per-se I'm worried about an unvetted delivery mechanism.
mRNA and the adenoviral vector vaccine delivery mechanisms have been studied for 50+ years and are vetted.
> Did you know its rare but accepted that some dogs get injection site tumors and we don't really know why?
Did you know dogs aren't humans, and there's no evidence of this kind of thing in humans at all?
btw it's also extremely extremely rare in dogs, to the extent it's hard to find any kind of data on it. It wasn't thought to occur except in cats until the 70s, so I've written up the rest of this generously assuming cats.
Most study headlines you read are fun achievements that only work on the animals under study and they don't have the same effects in humans. You can significantly increase the life of worms by not feeding them, but humans not so much. Weird huh.
Again this brings us back to our 'substitution of T with N' conversation. It's always a normal distribution. While these VAS tumors develop a few years in, in some cases they develop within a few months. So if you give 6 billion people vaccines over 3 years, you would have definitely seen this kind of latent thing by now, even if its peak effect is a few years later.
> That would surely be a latent effect in dogs, why do we think it could never happen in humans who live much longer?
That's not a thing. Again you're asking to prove a negative, which is not how we do anything because it's impossible. The burden of proof is on you to explain why you think it could happen, not on me to prove why it couldn't.
Prove to me that eating a tomato won't cause turbo-cancer of the elbow. You can't.
I love the way this progressed from, latent disease doesn't happen to prove to me tomatoes don't cause turbo-cancer. There's so much text there that its really nice and smooth.
It really doesn't. I keep illustrating the premise that you can replace time with sample count to make a best-effort, reasonable estimate of the long-tail risk of normally distributed outcomes. The ones to which you are alluding. Ideally, in a way you appreciate - or at the least understand.
I'm also saying that beyond that reasonable estimate based on the 300+ years of vaccine development behind us (and 50+ years of development of mRNA and viral vector vaccines) you are asking scientists to prove a negative which nobody can do.
That's not the standard we hold literally anything else to, nor should we.
I'm sorry for the snark and I do really appreciate the back and forth. I guess what I don't grasp is how we are confident that these are all normally distributed. We don't really know what these distributions look like until we resolve them in the real world. For things that could irreversibly fuck up a population it would seem to me you'd want to take that process tediously slow. I guess what you are saying is "YES goddamnit we are already doin it!" But still we are testing the whole package live without much of a holdback. The whole process felt imprudent for the likes of Covid.
