Monty Hall and the ‘Leibniz Illusion’

[ColinWright]

https://chance.amstat.org/2022/11/monty-hall/

[hackandthink]

This is worth reading.

We all know the solution and a Devlin style reasoning was intuitive and convincing enough for me.

But the author has a point:

"In fact, these prior probabilities are completely irrelevant ..."

(did not know that Leibniz got a very basic probability wrong)