Making money based on statistics is what the insurance company does. The whole point of insurance is paying extra money to the insurance company in case I'm personally on the wrong side of the statistic.
That makes sense for ruinous losses. If $12K would be a ruinous loss, you’re doing precisely the right thing, if you assume you have to have that exact car.
Having a $5K car would probably be more financially appropriate, but that’s a side topic when considering only “buy this insurance or not”.
