The US government has extremely strong incentives to report inflation as low as possible, so it's likely less about "thinking" we're at negative and more that they pick and choose data to show it intentionally.
They have very specific baskets of goods and methodologies that they publish details on when changed. And it is done by an independent groups of government employees with lots of eyes, both public and private looking at every detail of what they do. I don't think they are simply cherry picking data.
There are a ton of issues with the official CPI numbers that none of this accounts for and even the BLS admits to in a limited extent. It doesn't account for people buying less expensive substitutes when items get expensive, it only includes "staples" despite consumers potentially spend a ton on newer items, it doesn't account for quality changes of items, it has an undue weight on urban areas, doesn't account for shrinkflation or other hidden forms of inflation, and lots of others.
The BLS isn't independent. The commissioner is hand picked by the senate, and it's currently someone who's very deeply rooted in establishment politics and has close connections to the Koch family, the fossil fuel industry, and Trump.
> It doesn't account for people buying less expensive substitutes when items get expensive
as mentioned in the chained CPI FAQ, "The C-CPI-U employs a formula that reflects the effect of substitution that consumers make across item categories in response to changes in relative prices."
Do you have any evidence that the methods to calculate inflation have changed at any point in the Biden administration to show negative inflation right now or are you just heavily implying that it's probably happening without any such evidence?
In September of last year, the frequency of goods selection for calculating CPI changed from every 2 years to every year. The change came into effect in January 2023.
