Ask HN: Where will AI's progress slow down next?

[SunghoYahng]

Of course, it can be argued that any technology will reach a certain stage in a certain time. But when AI progress slows down and appears to stagnate from the outside, what do you think it will look like?

[futureshock]

By all appearances, it is tightly linked to increases in compute per dollar. If that slows, AI capability growth will slow.