It is entirely possible for him to have been fully aware of the criminality of his schemes, fully calculating in his execution of them, and also fully expecting to be able to get away with them, because he's a rich white guy, and may have(?) never faced any serious consequences in his life.
I do not even have the capacity to imagine stupidity as binary without someone else explaining their thought process. Words mean whatever you want them to mean.
But to my previous comment and what I was trying to communicate, stupidity is not even a relevant dimension sometimes.
If someone doesn't have a master plan for their whole life or decades at a time, not only is that not stupid or smart in some absolute or binary sense, it doesn't rate anywhere in between either.
It doesn't rate on any scale from smart to stupid, I think, because people can succeed without planning, and fail with planning. Or the converse (contrapositive?)
By the way, I can't help the word "binary" jumping out at me acontextually, because (I don't know if you've heard) there is or was a fairly large and scammy industry in "binary options" until it was banned in some jurisdictions. I haven't heard of SBF being connected, but some people at (or formerly at) Celsius reportedly were.
It is entirely possible for him to have been fully aware of the criminality of his schemes, fully calculating in his execution of them, and also fully expecting to be able to get away with them, because he's a rich white guy, and may have(?) never faced any serious consequences in his life.