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Twilio doesn't seem very inflation-sensitive to me? They're mostly software, there's no complicated supply chain.



Every company that relied on low interest rate loans because the Fed held the rate at near 0% is sensitive to inflation when the Fed is about to raise that same rate.


Twilio doesn't have a high debt burden. They're affected like all other growth tech because future cash flows are discounted against the risk free rate.


They have ~3 billion more cash than debt


Last year "Twilio had an earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss, truth be told. Indeed, in that time it burnt through $254m of cash and made a loss of US$1.1b."

They will burn through that cash much faster with higher interest rates on their 1.012B in debt.


Interest expense is 64m in the trailing twelve months so it's not a meaningful difference in their cash burn. Most corporate debt is fixed rate and with a net cash position they don't need to roll it over. Interest rates affect Twilio by affecting the economy.

The fact that revenues are not rising as fast as management expected means the only way left to reduce losses is to cut expenses.


Their debt to equity has been rising:

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TWLO/twilio/debt-e...

And why are revenues falling? You see, it always comes back to interest rates and inflation.


Twilio's debt to equity ratio is small enough to be irrelevant.

Revenue is falling while the economy is still growing because pandemic trends are reverting to normal. Same as e-commerce, which caught Shopify and Amazon with too many employees. Same as media, which caught Netflix flatfooted.

People are shifting their spend from goods to services and from online to offline. Coincidentally, that's what people use to explain inflation. There's always micro trends underlying a macro trend.




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