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> Ukraine launches a few rockets and a stealth f-22 off the coast can guide it in.

The only “rockets” Ukraine has that would reach that range are Neptune anti-ship cruise missiles which has active radar homing for hitting ships, and backup inertial/GPS guidance (which is all that is needed for stationary land targets), and converted Soviet-era drones with (apparently) GPS/inertial guidance it has used for long-range strikes into Russia (specifically, at strategic bomber bases being used for attacks against Ukraine.)

For the F-22 to guide a missile in, it would have to have semi-active radar or laser homing (I believe the F-22 can, with the right equipment, designated for either), but the Neptune doesn’t, and we have no indication that their drone conversions do, either. So, the alternatives for a Ukrainian rocket attack is a weapon we don’t know they have with an assist from fighters that haven’t been reported in the region and that would be the exact kind of escalation the US government is trying to avoid, or weapons we do know they have, which need no US assist.

Which seems likelier?




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