This is of course assuming that programming in the future is exactly what programming today is. I find that hard to believe.
I'm sure that the edge of the programming will still have a similar feeling. However the vast majority of applications are pretty simple. I wouldn't be surprised if we see the process of creating those applications become dead simple, any person with a high school education can do it, and will do it. In fact it will probably become a part of the educational process... the way my education involved creating powerpoint slides, my kids will learn to make simple db queries (not necessarily in code) that can be accessed by a simple user interface made in a vb like environment.
You still have to solve for the software crisis http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Software_crisis it is still with us today. It is the major reason that I am not optimistic about it changing in the 10-20 year outlook baring a major shift in how software is assembled. The problem with those VB and access solutions is they inevitably do not scale. I think they are great for empowering people but I have seen the pattern too many times where one of these solutions outlives it's intent and becomes a critical system at a company that then pours far more money into keeping it alive than they ever would have should they have hired a developer in the first place. Some of the best environments I have seen is organizations that encourage business people to solution in access, but once a homegrown solution hits a certain size they hand it off as a prototype to a development team to turn it into a robust solution. Therein lies the issue, the tool that empower people inherently lead to sloppy solutions that further the software crisis, the tools that help manage quality and scalability don't empower the lay person. No one is even remotely close to crossing that chasm. If anything web apps have made the two that much further apart.
I'm sure that the edge of the programming will still have a similar feeling. However the vast majority of applications are pretty simple. I wouldn't be surprised if we see the process of creating those applications become dead simple, any person with a high school education can do it, and will do it. In fact it will probably become a part of the educational process... the way my education involved creating powerpoint slides, my kids will learn to make simple db queries (not necessarily in code) that can be accessed by a simple user interface made in a vb like environment.