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But instead of having a single planet generating random molecular combinations to roll for proto-DNA, you have billions or more. Life would have to evolve extremely commonly for it to be more probable to evolve by itself on any specific planet than on literally any planet which then encouters an event causing panspermia.

But alas, that's an external observer viewpoint. It's important to note that it does not say that life is more probable to have evolved somewhere else than Earth (since we have an effective sample size of 1). It only says that the extra step introduced in the panspermia theory does not have a negative probabilistic impact, on the contrary.




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