The latter. It may be bad in the balkans, which it is, but nowhere near as bad as in other places. Either way both regions will improve. If anything, i’d invest now even if i wouldnt be able to exploit that investment. Nationalism aside i think india has a bright future. The balkans will end up in the eu as well if the eu doesnt break up. Worth investing there too.
Investing and "opening a business" are two very different things though. I'd definitely invest in India (BRIC is about to loose China, but the rest are still improving year over year at a rate that looks sustainable), but I'm not mad enough to try to actually open a physical business there. It's kind of a well-known bureaucratic black hole in economics circles. The best you can hope for is to buy an existing company (whether that's outright buying, or "buying" through some contractual subsidiary/merger/etc. arrangement)
Do you even need to open business? I’d just buy land near promising areas, say near where motorways are likely to be built, or regions with tourist potential (ie tall mountains, as snow will be at a premium in the future, thermal water reserves, agricultural potential, etc). That in itself can be good business. Buy it and leave it there for a while. Unlike china, india will indeed take a different trajectory - if it doesnt go down the route of petty nationalism. Similarly, i’d invest in real estate in the balkan region or moldavia should it join the eu. I know in some countries once they joined the eu they 10x’d.
