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You might be thinking about the Kelly criterion [0]. It does go the other way around: even if the expected value of a lottery were positive, you should only bet insignificant amounts.

If I have a lottery, and you have a 1 in a billion chance to gain 10 billion utility, tickets cost 1 utility. How much of your current utility wealth should you put in?

Classical expected value reasoning would pour in everything, even though you are almost guaranteed bankrupt at the end of that transaction.

The Kelly criterion recommends an exact (small) percentage for this style of lotteries, and is therefore probably more sensible than decision making based on expected values.

[0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion




Notable: Kelly only works if you're playing a multi-round game.

Also careful; I believe money-to-utility is already logarithmic for most people. We don't have a good intuition for what "billions of utility vs 1 utility" represents.


How can you have a game that isn't multi-round?

Surely after you finish playing one game, the next game you play (even if it's a completely different game) is the second round.


You have considered if the number of rounds is large enough. A weekly lottery doesn't have many rounds. A "huge jackpot" is even more rare.


> A weekly lottery doesn't have many rounds.

It doesn't if you're a house fly.

Average life expectancy at birth in OECD countries is around 4'000 weeks.


Kelly maximizes (logarithmic) utility.

Kelly is equivalent to decision making based on expected values (of the logarithm of wealth).

Maybe you wanted to say "[...] gain 10 billion dollars, tickets cost 1 dollar. How much of your current dollar wealth [...]".


Kelly criterion assumes you will increase your bet when you win, to increase overall final value, and the EV is positive. It doesn't work when you expect to only win at most once.


That sounds sensible




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